BMJ Open -
This study aimed to test the performance of new variants of models to
identify people at risk of an emergency hospital admission. It compared
the impact of using alternative data sources (hospital inpatient,
A&E, outpatient and GP electronic medical records; the effects of
local calibration on the performance of the models; and the choice of
population denominators. It found that the addition of more detailed
data sets led to moderate improvement in the number of patients
identified; the use of general practitioner registry data for the
denominator proved to be of significant importance; and that models
calibrated to local data sets did not show consistent improvement over
models built on pooled data.